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Shi Jingli, National Development and Reform Commission: The Difficult road ahead in the post-subsidy era: the "change and constant" of China
The fever continued in the first half of the year
Jiing li said, in the first half of this year new installed capacity of 24.31 million kilowatts, photovoltaic power generation and installed in the first half of last year's data, in the first half of the year accounted for 50% of the power of new power, is not only in the field of energy, many aspects in the society particularly large attention, at least in the first half of this year, the heat still continues unabated. By The end of June, China had installed 154.5 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power generation, accounting for 8.9 percent of the total installed power generation capacity, generating 82.4 billion kilowatt hours of electricity and 2.6 percent of the total social electricity consumption, up from 1.9 percent last year. It can be seen that the growth rate of photovoltaic power generation is particularly significant.
According to the breakdown data, the installed capacity of both centralized power stations and distributed pv has exceeded 12 gw, which is the first time this year that the installed capacity of distributed PV has exceeded the installed capacity of centralized power stations. In terms of centralized power stations, 8.69 gw was added in June, which is mainly the target project for 2017. This amount is in line with most people's expectations, and this figure is still slightly down from 10 GW added in a month last year.
According to the relevant provisions of the 5.31 photovoltaic New Deal, distributed photovoltaic arrangement this year is 10 million kilowatts, this index is just used up.
Shi Jingli pointed out that, in general, the whole photovoltaic industry and market have been overheating since entering the 13th Five-Year plan until June, and some regions and industries have seen market and industry imbalance. In the first half of 2018, east China and North China accounted for 26 percent and 25 percent of new installed capacity, respectively. Three provinces and six provinces and autonomous regions added more than 2 million kW of new installed capacity, and six provinces and autonomous regions added more than 1 million kW. Among them, qinghai and Ningxia are almost all centralized power plants, while other provinces, such as Zhejiang and Shandong, have a relatively high proportion of distributed power plants, and the remaining provinces have a certain proportion of distributed power plants and centralized power plants respectively.
The "Change and Invariance" of Pv in China
After introducing the development of photovoltaic power generation in the first half of the year, Shi Jingli read the 5.31 New Deal which is widely concerned by photovoltaic people.
After the release of the document on May 31, the policy environment of the photovoltaic market suddenly became tight. Relevant policy departments issued a lot of documents, and this document no. 823 has the greatest impact. From the perspective of policy environment, a comprehensive comparison and careful analysis of the overall macro situation and multiple policy documents shows that China's photovoltaic power generation policy, even if we only see the situation in the first half of this year, is more a reflection of the "change and change" of policy environment.
What remains unchanged is the overall policy environment. China's strategic determination to develop clean energy, whether in the short, medium or long term, remains unchanged. In recent years, photovoltaic power generation and other clean energy frequently included in the national program of action or repeatedly emphasized by high-level evidence. The 19th National Congress of the CPC reported that energy development was for the first time included in ecological progress, which is of special significance. In the past, energy development appeared in government documents or party reports, mostly in a separate section, either on industry or on energy. The report to the 19th National Congress included energy in the building of an ecological civilization, which is a clear policy direction.
In addition, the report to the 19th National Congress also calls for the expansion of three industries: clean production, clean energy and energy conservation and environmental protection. What is growth? Growing stronger is not only about scale, but also about getting stronger and paying more attention to high-quality development. In December 2017, the National Energy Administration issued a guideline on energy work in 2018. The core idea is to emphasize high-quality development of all kinds of energy and market-oriented allocation to ensure energy supply and support economic development. Therefore, it can be said that the overall environment of photovoltaic and energy development is unchanged.
"Change" from a purely focus on scale, such as increasing production capacity, output and market scale, into a high quality development, pay attention to quality, and the efficiency, increase efficiency, improve the quality of development, policy, market allocation is given priority to the development of the model, it is the development path of a corresponding adjustment, there is a "change" the direction.
Being bearish is not an option
In Jing Li shi, 5.31 photovoltaic New Deal can not be said to come suddenly. When thinking about the New Deal, the industry needs to combine the theme of the two drafts for comments in April for dialectical analysis. At present, the two drafts on centralized photovoltaic power stations and distributed photovoltaic management measures have not been issued. I feel that these two documents represent an important policy direction for the future of photovoltaic power generation industry. It is hard to say whether they will be released in the second half of the year or even postponed to 2019.
Jing Li shi believes that these two policies will have a lot of "information", through a few key words can be seen. Among them, the key words about the overall construction scale of photovoltaic power generation are orderly, strictly controlled and healthy development should be promoted. Distributed photovoltaic power generation is to redefine or differentiate the scale of various appropriate distributed photovoltaic, clear specific business model, Internet mode, etc., these key information has not been decided. The key words of the draft of distributed photovoltaic management method are: classification and regression of distributed photovoltaic as the nature of distributed power, rather than a few years ago many national Internet access and even tens of thousands of kilowatts of photovoltaic power stations as distributed included in this. Therefore, this orientation is more obvious in the documents of April.
On May 31, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration issued document no. 823, titled "Notice on Matters Related to PHOTOVOLTAIC Power Generation in 2018", with a clear goal to regulate the photovoltaic power market in 2018. Of course, we can't rule out doing the same in 2019. But policymakers don't seem to have an answer on what to do in 2019. Market developments in the second half of this year will be an important reference for policy making. Although the two Measures have not been released, they reflect a continuous development thinking, which may not be limited to the situation in 2018, but will continue to go down.
Document no. 823 considers that we should properly grasp the development pace and optimize the new scale of photovoltaic power generation. Ordinary power stations will not be arranged this year, and whether it is possible to be arranged in the second half of the year is an uncertain factor. Distributed, 10 million kw from January to May basically used up, continue to promote photovoltaic poverty alleviation, is reflected in the document. Not to say that limiting the size of the photovoltaic power generation, but now in the file is more of a hope to be able to control, need a large amount of subsidies, said to put it more simply, countries don't have the money, if the grid has given conditions, do not need to state subsidies project, we hope you continue to do, of course price benchmarking and distributed photovoltaic electricity subsidy down five cents each. In fact, the core of a series of policies is to high-quality development and guide industrial integration, because by the time of the first quarter of this year, the capacity of many photovoltaic industry chains has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, and if we do not step on the brake, it will rapidly expand, so it is better to adjust early than later. We will shut down outdated production facilities to upgrade technology and industries, and make innovations and improve market mechanisms.
Shi Jingli said that the photovoltaic industry is greatly affected by national policies and industrial development. It is difficult for people to predict what kind of speed the photovoltaic industry will take. Its cost has dropped and exceeded people's expectations for many times. If we can maintain the pace of technology and industrial upgrading in the past five or six years, the cost will drop. In the first half of 2019, the price of advanced single crystal components can reach 1.4 yuan/watt, and in 2020, it can reach 1.06 yuan/watt. TRW believes that it can achieve 1 yuan/watt. These data are published in the bidding documents of leading base. The outside world may question whether it can be done? But companies do what they say they will. We can put this to the test by looking at several leading enterprises in the industry and see if they can achieve around 1 yuan within two years in less than a year by the second quarter of next year. If so, photovoltaic will also form a strong support for microgrid. So technological progress is hard to predict. Here, you might want to unify a conservative scenario, a positive scenario, and make predictions about the future.
Photovoltaic power generation application field is particularly extensive, before The State Council issued a document in 2013, photovoltaic has three application fields. From 2013 to now, just four or five years ago, if you want to break it down, there are more than 10 kinds of pv +, and it is expected that there will be at least five new fields in the next five years. For example, the application and practice of photovoltaic in microgrid is a very important development direction in the next five years. Can draw lessons from photovoltaic pv agriculture, fishery development path in the past five years, national policy, through what kind of demonstration or pilot demonstration class national action or a class of national action, in the next five years, in combination with photovoltaic promote the progress of parity on the Internet, photovoltaic (pv) application in micro network is an important link, is also a photovoltaic (pv) will open up a new field.
The answer is to subsidize
On photovoltaic power generation subsidies, Shi Jingli was systematically elaborated.
Photovoltaic power generation to the subsidy process accelerated, especially after the 531 policy, the price of silicon chips and electronic components dropped significantly, basically the initial investment from a little more than 6 pieces, directly dropped to 5.5 yuan, down 10%, so the cost has also decreased significantly.
Why is the 823 file so strict?
As for the reduction of electricity prices and subsidies, the industry can accept it and squeeze out some non-technical costs and unreasonable technical costs in the manufacturing industry. However, it is not very reasonable to control the scale, but there is no way to do so, because the subsidy funds are indeed insufficient. In terms of demand, according to document no. 823, the subsidy fund gap in 2020 will still be close to 100 billion yuan. In terms of the demand for subsidies, the peak of subsidies was during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an annual value of about 200 billion yuan. By 2026, some projects will have reached the implementation period of 20 years, and some existing projects will be oversubsidized, so the total demand for subsidies in 2026 will continue to decline. So existing policies have to be implemented, and new ones have to be created, in order to address the need for subsidies.
The demand for subsidy funds for photovoltaic power generation grows particularly fast, accounting for 31% of the total subsidy funds in 2015, 43% last year, and is expected to reach 46% this year. It will surpass wind power and biomass power generation and become the renewable resource with the largest demand for subsidy funds. Subsidies from KWH, if we consider the latest, five hair moneys 6 yuan 7 cents pv electricity prices, national subsidies subsidies kilowatt-hour is 0.28, according to the competitive allocation, reduce the subsidies of two or three cents expected subsidies subsidies KWH is 2 hair 5 per kilowatt-hour, subsidy policy, use the next three to five years, even down to zero, to complete to subsidize process. In June after normal power station can't gain the benchmark price, or do an economical analysis, if there really are indicators, with subsidies, most projects yield has better security, different areas, the number of hours for different levels of investment, achieve the hours, economy is also guaranteed, even considering the current subsidy may default 3 to 4 years, And under the condition that the loan interest rate does not exceed 5% and the power limit, if the hours can be increased, the economic efficiency of the project is still ok.
Distributed, 0.37 dropped to 0.32, but with conditions, I think more than 70% of the industrial and commercial projects, areas with better resources, if the ratio of self-use of industrial and commercial projects reaches more than 50%, now no need for subsidies, economic efficiency is very good. If the proportion of large-scale industrial users reaches more than 80%, there is no subsidy now, and it does not matter too much if they cannot enter the catalog, they are all relatively good projects. Now everyone said in spontaneous self-used rate is higher, if we can get this project less proportion, so now we aim at to distributed generation market trading, partition sell electricity mode, think this is a new field, I am here also, but this area it is in the process of implementing and encountered some obstacles. This is hebei hebei north power grid and the development of a project in south power network in hebei province, did an economy under the different revenue model of comparative analysis, the proportion of spontaneous for private use is high, or not to drop, to advancing market trading model is blue, it is containing a subsidy of about 3 cents, even if the fall, to the left of the green is about the same, basic quite, As long as we can choose projects equal to or slightly better than the average line, the investment level is reduced, and solar energy resources are slightly better than the average level. If there is no subsidy for distributed photovoltaic, we can still do it, with the conditions of withdrawing subsidies completely.
The post-subsidy era still has a hard road ahead
Distributed photovoltaic market trading is launched last year, the National Energy Administration policy, in accordance with the original plan was formally implemented in July, but now look at the pilot to promote the process of lagging behind, the key reason lies in the development of photovoltaic power generation companies with grid contradiction between, do many of the solutions are in accordance with the distribution of electricity do difference method to do, No matter the State Grid, The South Grid or the Ground Power are all against it. In this way, my cost is not reflected and cross-subsidy is not included. Therefore, we may encounter the same problems in the process of making microgrid and power grid. Distributed development market transactions, of course, about Internet fee still have clear principles and rules, the principles and provisions, though reasonable, but it is hard to come on stage, because the grid account is indeed very difficult to do, the two extreme ways, one is in various provinces, 34 to distributed generation market trading scheme proposed direct difference method, the pay the Internet fee, Cheap 0, 1.5 points, the highest but 8 cents, so the grid does not work. In addition, Zengcheng in Guangdong province directly reduced the price of electricity by 2 points on the basis that the electricity user's access voltage level corresponds to the provincial public network transmission and distribution price of power grid. Therefore, there is no problem in principle, but in practice, more preparatory work may be needed for specific interests.
In terms of the trend of photovoltaic power generation technology, technology updates quickly, far more than expected, 3-5 years of technological iteration cycle, silicon-based cells in the recent single crystal market growth rapidly. The cost reduction potential and parity path brought by technological progress have been referred to the development results of photovoltaic roadmap in terms of technology. It can also be seen that parity can be achieved on the sales side by 2020. The electricity price of concentrated photovoltaic power stations of the first and third classes can be reduced to 0.38-0.51, and that of distributed photovoltaic power stations can reach 0.44-0.62. In 2022, it can be reduced by 0.32-0.44. The new mechanism and policy factors may bring forward the parity time. If we consider the implementation of new mechanisms, such as the quota and green power increase and transmission mechanism discussed and promoted in the first half of this year, as well as market-oriented trading, it is possible to advance the parity mechanism, that is to say, in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, photovoltaic and wind power will enter the parity subsidy period.
In addition to the industry itself, the policy environment is also very important. We need to reduce the cost of non-technology. In the first half of this year, a good project for renewable resource power generation projects is that the construction of the network project is regulated by the power grid, and it is included in the calculation of transmission and distribution price, so as to control the cost of land and solve the problem of power restriction. The establishment and implementation of new mechanisms or promote mechanism implementation, quotas and green power certificates are also in continuous progress. This is a project entrusted by China Development Bank that we have just done. The subsidy fund is in arrears, and when will it be resolved? At least in the near future, it is quite difficult for us to raise the possibility of 0.19 cents again, because the National Development and Reform Commission has just figured out all the uses and measures. Finally completed the prime minister li keqiang, puts forward the goal of 10% reduction of general industry and commerce, the last round of the file is just released the day before yesterday, but I think in the beginning "difference", scenery, land distributed photovoltaic, wind power and photovoltaic power station, and the main subsidies needs a large number of renewable resource technology, the new project implementation after the subsidy policy, It is still possible to increase the scale of the renewable resource fund and gradually solve the problem of subsidy arrears by making renewable resource development enjoy some dividends of the electricity system reform. The funding gap, the subsidies is the cumulative gap peak in 2020, almost 360 billion, a year in accordance with the amount of money around 90 billion, subsidies to default longest 4 years, 3 years now, that is to say, the basic level is more difficult stage, not more worse than this, but premise condition is exit to speed up the process of photovoltaic and wind power subsidies.
How to develop pv in post-subsidy era?
After the withdrawal of subsidies, how will we develop photovoltaic power generation, how will the market and development mode be, whether we still need policies, or what kind of policies are needed? We can do without policies. Many people say that can moderate the pv to subsidize, a year for fifty million mw or one hundred million kilowatts, this can be, complete market, unconstrained, depends on the market, the development path may be red, suddenly a lot of new, but the capacity of the power grid will become the development of photovoltaic power brake, adverse to the industry really. Of course, there is also a simple diagram of the grid's acceptance capacity. There are also many new technologies that can gradually increase the grid's acceptance capacity in the future, such as the supporting application of energy storage technology, the application of energy Internet and smart micro-grid. It may be that the photovoltaic power generation penetration rate in this region will increase by 30% from 20%. But on the whole, the combination of future photovoltaic development in the post-parity era and electricity price is definitely a very important development direction. If we have a quantitative data, I hope that in the future, even after parity, photovoltaic development will still follow the green and sustainable development path. Of course, if we do so, we need to do more detailed technical work for each region, including operation mode and business mode. Therefore, I think the last item mentioned in document 823 is also useful in the post-parity era. It must be developed in the post-parity era according to the requirements of Internet consumption conditions and policies. Study economic policy, like Britain, Germany, has some experience, tenders for the future of photovoltaic power generation and photovoltaic power and micro network model of development, can be as a reference, it can be used as a kind of long-term choice, including the spot market, medium and long term market agreement this model, can make a corresponding exploration.
Can borrow Ecofyi companies on the analysis of the market model, in the era of parity, photovoltaic and other renewable energy power generation, as well as a variety of power combination way, with bidding mode, form a fixed, is almost no risk of price model, also can use similar to Britain's contracts for differences, bilateral senders to reduce the risk, But there's still a lot of competition in the market conditions in the inside, also can use similar to Germany for unilateral price mode, even completely into the spot market, plus LuZheng and the quota market pattern, in the stage of "difference", renewable energy will this clean energy in the form of more, not just in terms of technology, There are more ways to explore, including business model, operation mode and revenue mode, and this exploration will increase the proportion of clean renewable energy in the power system and energy system. |
